I’ve done some modeling based on the a starting allocation and a best and worst case scenarios.
To try to quantify my opinions, I used the following assumptions:
Best case scenario (return to near normalcy by the Summer):
AYX could double or more by the end of the year and quadruple in 3 years
CRWD could go up 50-70% by then end of the year and double or triple in 3 years
OKTA could go up 20-50% by the end of the year and double in 3 years
DDOG could go up 30-40% by the end of the year and triple in 3 years
ZM could drop by 20-30% by then end of the year and go up 50-75% in 3 years
Worst case scenario (3 year depression):
AYX could drop another 50% by year end and also drop 50% after 3 years
CRWD could drop 20% by year’s end but double after 3 years
OKTA may just stay the same by year’s end and increase 20% after 3 years
DDOG may drop 50% by year’s end and get disrupted and drop by 90% in 3 years
ZM may increase 30% by the end of 2020 and go up 5-10x after 3 years
A portfolio with 35% AYX, 20% CRWD, 15% OKTA, 15% DDOG, 15% ZM would look like this under best and worst case scenario:
Assumptions on stock price value as a percentage of start (today):
| Best2020 | Best2023 | Worst2020 | Worst2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYX | 200% | 400% | 50% | 50% |
| CRWD | 160% | 300% | 80% | 200% |
| OKTA | 135% | 200% | 100% | 120% |
| DDOG | 135% | 300% | 50% | 10% |
| ZM | 75% | 163% | 130% | 750% |
Note that in the above table, for example, 100% means no change in stock price, 10% means 90% drop in stock price, and 750% means 650% increase in stock price.
| Start | Best2020 | Best2023 | Worst2020 | Worst2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYX | 35 | 70 | 140 | 18 | 18 |
| CRWD | 20 | 32 | 60 | 16 | 40 |
| OKTA | 15 | 20 | 30 | 15 | 18 |
| DDOG | 15 | 20 | 45 | 8 | 2 |
| ZM | 15 | 11 | 24 | 20 | 113 |
| Total | 100 | 154 | 299 | 76 | 190 |
The table is based on my own assumptions of the best and worst case scenarios which probably are not likely. We will likely see something between these 2 extremes. I used this type of thinking to construct my portfolio. You can see that based my assumptions, the portfolio will do very well in either scenarios (of course assuming that my assumptions on how stocks would perform under each scenario).