Elon Musk is like the boy who cried wolf. Full self driving (FSD) is coming next year or very soon; this is what Elon has been saying for about ten years. It’s not surprising that many investors don’t believe him now. I first invested in TSLA in 2023 with the investment thesis being that TSLA would succeed in solving autonomy for the auto transportation market. In the Spring of this year, I began to see the rapid progress that TSLA was making on FSD. The neural network approach led to big improvements. I decided to double down on my bet by selling all of my shares and using the proceeds to buy call options with 2026 expiration dates. The bet changed from TSLA would solve autonomy to TSLA would solve autonomy within the next two and a half years. However, I still only had about 4-5% of my portfolio allocated to TSLA, and, as I explained, owning TSLA was still a risky investment because the business without autonomy solved would likely be worth less than the stock price which was around $180 then. I also argued that a small investment of 4-5% of my portfolio could make a large difference to the value of my portfolio on the upside while not causing too much damage should FSD not get solved. So, why did I recently deviate from this allocation strategy and decide to increase my allocation? I recently sold out of SNOW and CRWD and allocated a significant portion of those proceeds to buying more TSLA shares. My TSLA position including shares and long-dated call options is around 15% of the portfolio.
Why I Increased the TSLA Allocation
Improvements to FSD are occurring at a rapid pace. Even if Unsupervised FSD isn’t here yet, the cadence of new version releases is high and the improvements are real. Tesla owners frequently post videos of their FSD drives on X, formerly Twitter. The progress is impressive. While FSD is not yet perfect, as can be seen by videos of Teslas running stops signs and red lights, the number of driver disengagements (where the driver must take over from FSD) are becoming increasingly rare. It appears to me that TSLA is getting close to solving autonomy. Last week, TSLA released version 12.5, and, today, about a week later, TSLA is releasing version 12.5.1. During the Q2 earnings call, Elon said that TSLA intends to apply for regulatory approval of Supervised FSD in some countries in Europe and in China. It’s yet another signal that Unsupervised FSD is getting closer and closer to getting solved. Will it take another year or two or will Unsupervised FSD be here sooner? I don’t know, but I think that’s the wrong question to ask. The question we should be asking is whether solving FSD is inevitable. I argue that it’s pretty clear that it’s inevitable, and that’s why I increased the portfolio’s TSLA from around 5% to about 15%. To be more accurate, part of the allocation increase came not from buying more shares but from share price appreciation during the past few weeks. My bet that FSD is inevitable combined with the implications of that occurring on TSLA’s enterprise value are keeping me from trimming my TSLA allocation. While the wolf hasn’t yet been spotted, the howling is growing louder.
The Q2 2024 Results
Car sales were down 7% from a year ago, and margins on cars were down again. Some have argued that slowing car revenues and lower margins on the vehicles caused the post-earnings share price drop. Maybe. I agree with Elon when he says that the value created from solving autonomy will dwarf any and all other key performance indicators. I agree. Yes, he actually said that if investors don’t believe TSLA will solve FSD then they should sell their shares. I would agree with that too. In addition to solving FSD, there are several things that I think are important. First, TSLA has more than $30B on its balance sheet, has positive cash flow, and has an unwavering commitment to taking FSD to the finish line. Second, TSLA has a huge install base of vehicles that not only ensure that TSLA will continue to rapidly and continuously make improvements to FSD but also allow TSLA to quickly monetize FSD even before it becomes Unsupervised. The better FSD gets, the more value it has for a Tesla vehicle owner; this makes it increasingly likely that Tesla owners will pay for the FSD service. It also makes it increasingly likely that a prospective car owner will purchase a Tesla. Finally, TSLA has huge technological lead over all other car manufacturers, and once this lead hits the tipping point, it’s really hard to imagine that consumers will elect to buy any car but a Tesla or one that has licensed TSLA’s FSD software.
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